Heat Pump vs. Natural Gas – with Colder Climates in mind

Modern Heat Pumps have improved and can now work well in colder weather. In some places the Government and Utility Companies are putting their finger on the scale (rebates, promotion) in order that people might switch from Natural Gas to Electric.
But what are the economics of doing so? This simple calculator will help homeowners decode the costs involved.

Heat Pump vs. Natural Gas Heating Cost
Compare the operating cost of a cold-climate heat pump with a modern natural-gas furnace. Results are shown as cost per one million BTU of heat delivered to the home.

Heat Pump

COP represents heat delivered compared with electricity consumed. Actual COP varies with equipment and outdoor temperature.
Heat Cost $29.31 per 1,000,000 BTU delivered

Natural Gas Furnace

90%
Assumes a modern 90% efficient natural-gas furnace.
Heat Cost $19.44 per 1,000,000 BTU delivered

Break-Even Points

Heat Pump COP Needed to Equal Natural Gas Cost 3.77
Electricity Price Needed at Selected COP 16.6¢/kWh
At these settings, natural gas costs $9.87 less per million BTU delivered.
Calculation uses 3,412 BTU per kWh and 100,000 BTU per therm. Energy cost only; installation, maintenance, auxiliary heat and other costs are not included.

Useful Links:
https://neep.org/heating-electrification/ccashp-specification-product-list
NEEP List of Highly Efficient Heat Pumps